[In-person] “Why Monetary Analysis Triumphed Over the Consensus During the COVID Crisis, and What is Next”
概要
It is well known that central banks failed disastrously to forecast inflation during and after the COVID crisis. The reason for this failure was that their economists and senior officials use the wrong model (s) of inflation – that is, they do not understand the drivers of inflation. For licensed individuals, professional investors, academics and students alike, it is important to correct these misunderstandings.
內容
• Comparison of forecasts at the start of the COVID crisis
• The consistency of monetary forecasts
• Why interest rates are a misleading measure of monetary policy: they are the result of past money growth
• What do monetary forecasts show now about 2025-26?
• What does this mean for the investment outlook?
對象
All licensed individuals and professional investors.